Airline Pilot Market

Question:
I was wondering about your assessment of the pilot market.

Answer:
That’s a tough one. The industry is slated to hire 65,000 pilots over the next year.

Having said that, My personal two-cents…. Yes, we are suffering from shortage (especially quality) and will for the next couple of years. If you look at historical flight school enrollments this will give you a good indicator. Flight school to regional is about five years, regional to major another five. What we’re seeing now is the result of very little enrollments right after 9/11 (oh, it rears its ugly head again).
Enrollment picked up again a couple of years later…but fast forward to now. Now is when those 2001, 2002 enrollments should be going to the regionals. They just aren’t there. At the major level we’re gonna feel it even more in a couple more years.

Take a look at who is hiring and what their hiring projections are for the next year, two years. I’m not sure that the regional airlines are going to be able to fulfill their needs. They’re having trouble now, and it’s only going to get worse. I think in about five years we’ll see it START to correct back in favor of the airlines, but I really feel it’s going to be tough going in the near future.

I invite your comments on pilot hiring. Where do you see it in the near future?